Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's "Convergence Plan"

What is the significance of the plan for the people whose lives it will affect?

A view of Israel's separation wall in Qalandiya as it cuts between the West Bank cities of Ramallah and East Jerusalem. (Fadi Arouri, Maan Images)

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has declared that he wants to draw Israel's permanent borders within the coming four years, unilaterally if necessary. The resulting "convergence plan" would expand Israel's territory and continue long-term Israeli policies of racial gerrymandering, aimed at absorbing maximum land and water resources in the West Bank while minimizing the number of Palestinian residents it governs. This is a continuation of the process of "unilateral disengagement" from the Palestinians begun under Ariel Sharon.

Is this a withdrawal from the West Bank?

While the Israeli government touts the plan as a"withdrawal" that will ostensibly reduce conflict with the Palestinians, the plan, in fact, would allow Israel to take between 30 percent and 58 percent of the West Bank, including some of the best agricultural land and most valuable water resources. Under the plan, an estimated 60,000-70,000 Israeli settlers will be relocated from settlements more distant from Israel's pre-1967 borders to larger settlements that are closer to Israel but still on the West Bank.

Palestinian-controlled areas of the West Bank would be divided into three isolated cantons, rendering the establishment of an economically and politically viable Palestinian state impossible. It is not clear to what extent relocation of Israeli settlers will be accompanied by a reduction in Israeli military forces from Palestinian areas.

How does the plan work?

While precise details of the plan have not been released, its three major elements are summarized below.

1) The new "western" border would roughly follow the route of Israel's separation wall, about 80 percent of which lies on occupied Palestinian land.

In several places, the wall intrudes deeply into the West Bank to encompass Israeli settlements. The wall has almost completely surrounded a number of Palestinian towns and villages, and separated Palestinian farmers from their lands. The wall was also the subject of a case before the International Court of Justice, which in July 2004 ruled that the wall is illegal and must be dismantled. The Court ordered Israel to compensate Palestinians damaged by the wall's construction. Israel has ignored this ruling.

2) The Jordan Valley, which comprises 28.5 percent of the West Bank, would remain under permanent Israeli control.

In the last year, Israel has declared the entire Jordan Valley a "closed area" and off limits to Palestinians, leading to speculation that some form of Israeli occupation will continue indefinitely in that area. This means not only that Palestinians would have considerably less land available for agriculture, housing, and industrial development, but that Palestinian population centers in the West Bank would be entirely surrounded by Israeli forces. The entire Palestinian economy would be dependent on, and hostage to, Israeli will, in much the same way the Gaza Strip economy is today.

3) The major settlement blocs, housing roughly 87 percent of Israel's settler population, would be annexed to Israel. These include:

a) Ariel settlement bloc in the northern West Bank. Ariel is located approximately 13.6 miles inside the West Bank and straddles one of the region's major aquifers.

b) Etzion bloc near Bethlehem. Annexing the Etzion bloc will mean that 73.3 percent of the lands of eight Palestinian villages will lie on the "Israeli" side of the wall. These comprise some of the best agricultural land in the Bethlehem area. The annexation of the Etzion bloc will frustrate movement between the villages and Bethlehem and Jerusalem, prevent access to fields and devastate the region's economic development.

c) The Adumim bloc near Jerusalem. This settlement bloc lies 8.7 miles east of the 1967 border. Israeli plans to annex and expand the Adumim bloc will effectively divide the West Bank into two. Many of the city's Palestinian neighborhoods would be transferred to the West Bank and Palestinians will be cut off from Jerusalem. East Jerusalem would be severed from Bethlehem and Ramallah. These three Palestinian cities have historically been socially, culturally and economically interdependent. Together, the three alone account for roughly one-third of the Palestinian economy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

How has the U.S. government responded to the Israeli plan for "convergence"?

American support, both diplomatic and financial, is key to Israel's ability to implement "convergence". Diplomatic support is necessary because Israel's unilateral annexation of any of the territories it seized in 1967 is illegal, and is opposed by virtually the entire international community. Meanwhile, costs of relocating West Bank settlers have been estimated at $10.5 billion. Prime Minister Olmert originally hoped to win U.S. support for "convergence" during his first trip to Washington, D.C. The Bush administration, however, has recently signaled that it will not support convergence until Israel has made efforts to negotiate with the Palestinians. The two sides, therefore, are expected merely to exchange views on the plan, and U.S. diplomats have reportedly given their Israeli counterparts a series of questions seeking to clarify a number of aspects of convergence.