This article was originally published by Bitterlemons.org and is republished with permission.

Tony Blair and Mahmoud Abbas at a press conference in Ramallah in December. (Magnus Johansson, Maan Images)

It may not, at this early stage, be fair to try to analyze or predict the potential that Tony Blair's appointment as the Quartet's Middle East envoy brings. However there are things to be said about his mission. While Tony Blair might be new in the position, neither the Quartet nor the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is new.

Regardless of his credentials, Blair is coming to this mission with a problem of credibility stemming from his part in the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq as well as his generally subservient role to Washington. This is especially problematic since the US is a major component of the Quartet--and the problem.

The other problem he will have is that he is not from the US, the decisive player in the Quartet. He enjoys the support of the American president, but while the Middle East is geographically far away from the US, politically the Palestinian-Israeli conflict belongs to domestic American concerns.

Having said that, it needs to be made clear that appointing an envoy totally dedicated to the conflict is a constructive idea. Because the issues are so complicated they need daily follow-up. Attention has to be given to political, economic, security and humanitarian aspects, issues that are always interconnected. It was not by chance or the result of luck that the US succeeded in convening a peace conference in Madrid 16 years ago. It took Secretary of State James Baker and his team eighteen visits in the space of one year to achieve that.

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In addition, the history of the conflict has shown us that when the parties are left to their own devices, their relations almost invariably deteriorate. The best example of this is the period since George W. Bush took office and decided to abandon the conflict. The vacuum was filled by Israel's military superiority. Ariel Sharon took America's absence as a signal that he had a free hand. The results can be seen everywhere now, from the humanitarian suffering of Palestinians through the political stalemate to the election victory of Hamas in 2006. Only with international attention and an active third party role do relations move in a positive direction.

The question now is what conditions can help Blair succeed in his mission. Considering that he lacks neither experience nor contacts, success will largely depend on the level of support he receives from the US government, particularly the president. We just saw the secretary of state herself fail to get the necessary support of her own president for suggestions--that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did not like--to revive the peace process. Her team presented a list of benchmarks that Israel refused, a refusal Washington simply accepted.

If Washington is ready to change its approach by seriously investing in Blair to bolster his efforts then there is a chance he can succeed. But if Israel is going to continue to be allowed full freedom to accept or reject whatever it wants, we will remain where we are.

Another condition is the extent to which Blair and the Quartet will be informed by the provisions of international law. So far, the balance of power--the law of the jungle--has been allowed to hold sway. Whether it is United Nations Security Council resolutions or the rulings of the International Court of Justice, neither the US nor Britain has been prepared to hold Israel to account. A clear commitment to international law is necessary for Blair, or any other envoy, to succeed in his mission.

Appointing an envoy is a good idea. An envoy can bear witness on behalf of the international community. Blair can help bring back the parties from a unilateral to a bilateral approach. He can bring back respect for international law. He can hold the parties accountable according to international law. But it all depends on the extent to which he receives the support of the Quartet and especially the US.

Ghassan Khatib is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications. He is vice-president of Birzeit University and a former Palestinian Authority minister of planning.

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