Palestinian President Abbas talks with US Secretary of State Rice during her August visit to Ramallah to discuss the Annapolis conference. (Maan Images)

1. How did the Annapolis conference come about?
2. What were the events surrounding Bush’s call for a conference?
3. When and where will the conference convene?
4. Who will attend?
5. Is Hamas expected to attend?
6. What does the agenda consist of?
7. What are the Palestinian positions coming into the conference?
8. What are the Israeli positions coming into the conference?
9. What is the significance of the fact that the two sides seem to be so far apart?
10. What is the expected outcome of the conference?
11. What are the potential consequences of the failure of the conference?
12. What have been the major developments in the West Bank and Gaza since July?

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1. How did the Annapolis conference come about?

On July 16, U.S. President George W. Bush called for the convening of an "international meeting" this fall to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.¹ Three days later the Middle East Quartet of the EU, UN, US, and Russia endorsed Bush's call.²

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2. What were the events surrounding Bush's call for a conference?

In June, the Bush Administration lifted its political and economic boycott of the Palestinian Authority. The boycott had been in place since the democratically-elected Hamas formed a government in March of 2006. It was lifted on June 18, four days after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah dissolved the Fatah-Hamas national unity government and removed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh from his position as Prime Minister. Abbas appointed former Finance Minister Salam Fayyad as Prime Minister, who then selected a new cabinet. On June 17, Hamas took control of Gaza while Fatah remains in control of most of the West Bank, though both territories remain under Israeli military occupation.

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3. When and where will the conference convene?

At the end of September it was revealed the gathering will take place at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD. On November 20, the U.S. issued formal invitations to Israel and the Palestinian Authority to attend talks on November 27. Talks are also scheduled to take place in Washington, DC, on November 26 and 28.³ (View conference schedule.)

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4. Who will attend?

In his announcement of the conference, Bush stated "the key participants...will be the Israelis, the Palestinians, and their neighbors in the region."⁴ The United States has sent formal invitations to Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and nearly 50 other countries and institutions. (View full list of invitees.) Members of the European Union, the United Nations, the Group of Eight and the Arab League Follow-up Committee have expressed a willingness to attend. Many, however, have stated they will wait to see the agenda before making a final decision on whether to attend. The formal invitation makes mention of the Saudi peace initiative and calls for a "comprehensive settlement" in an effort to entice high-level Saudi and Syrian attendance. The Arab League held a mini-summit in Cairo on Thursday, November 22, to formulate a policy for the Annapolis conference.⁵ Saudi Arabia has announced it will send its foreign minister to the Tuesday talks and Syria will send a deputy foreign minister. More than 40 other countries are also sending representatives. (View full list of participants.)

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5. Is Hamas expected to attend?

Hamas will not be invited nor be allowed to attend. It has urged Arab nations to boycott the event.⁶

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6. What does the agenda consist of?

No agenda has been set. Initially, the goal of the U.S. was to have the Palestinians and Israelis sign a joint declaration of principles addressing the core issues before convening the conference. Recently, however, the U.S. has been downplaying the importance of a joint declaration. This is likely due to the difficulty the Israelis and Palestinians are having in formulating such a document.⁷ (View leaked November 17 draft of the joint declaration.)

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7. What are the Palestinian positions coming into the conference? Why do they hold these positions?

The Palestinians have made clear they want to discuss what are referred to as the "final-status issues," - borders, settlements, refugees, water and Jerusalem - as well as agree on confidence-building measures and a timeline to implement them. They have stated that yet another meeting that does not address these substantive issues will be meaningless. The Palestinians insist these critical items be on the agenda as a pre-condition for their attendance. This sentiment is echoed by Saudi Arabia.⁸

After 40 years of occupation and 60 years of exile, the Palestinians are seeking a solution based on the already-established worldwide consensus of international law, United Nations resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative. In addition, given the experience of the Oslo Accords, after which the number of Israeli settlers living on Palestinian land doubled, most Palestinians do not trust that incremental solutions will lead to freedom and the recognition of their rights.

Abbas is therefore seeking commitments from Israel that will lead toward the swift resolution of final-status issues. Abbas knows that if he fails in this attempt, he will lose further credibility with the Palestinians and in his struggle with Hamas.

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8. What are the Israeli positions coming into the conference? Why do they hold these positions?

The Israelis insist that there be no discussion of final-status issues and have been pushing for a vaguer declaration that does not address the core issues.

Two right-wing parties in Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's ruling coalition, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas, have threatened to withdraw from the government, causing its collapse, if the Annapolis conference takes up final-status issues.⁹ Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Eli Yishai both expressed in recent meetings with Condoleezza Rice that Israel is not ready to discuss or make compromises on final-status issues. Also after meeting with Rice, Prime Minister Olmert expressed that he did not expect pressure from the U.S. to make any compromises.¹⁰

Recent Israeli actions, including the expropriation of land for new settlement construction east of Jerusalem and a route change to the separation wall that will seize additional land in the West Bank, raise concerns that Israel plans to maintain the status quo while appearing to be involved in peace discussions.

With a sympathetic administration in the United States, Israel can engage in the peace process with the confidence it will not be forced to make any significant concessions. Thus while talking to Abbas and making token gestures to bolster him in Fatah's struggle with Hamas, Olmert can continue to simultaneously entrench the occupation. He can build the separation wall, expand settlements, demolish homes, and choke off Gaza, creating more facts on the ground and each day making an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank less and less feasible.

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9. What is the significance of the fact that the two sides seem to be so far apart?

The wide rift between the parties, and the apparent refusal of the U.S. to push Israel to engage in substantive negotiations, may lead to the failure of the conference.

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10. What is the expected outcome of the conference?

The outcome will likely be disappointing. As previous negotiations have shown, Israel as the stronger party has avoided offering or accepting concessions that resemble the international consensus and what would be acceptable to the Palestinians. Were Israel to make such an offer at this meeting, Olmert must present any agreement made at Annapolis to the Knesset for approval,¹¹ where it is virtually guaranteed that any substantial movement towards a fair settlement will be rejected and thus rendered moot.

On the Palestinian side, Abbas may be tested in his ability to resist U.S. and Israeli pressure to accept a less-than-satisfactory agreement.¹² He runs the risk of accepting a compromise in an effort to please the international community at the expense of his Palestinian constituency. Were he to do so, he would inevitably lose popularity and increase tensions between Hamas and Fatah as well as within the ranks of Fatah.

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11. What are the potential consequences of the failure of the conference?

Given the high probability of the conference's failure, a return to or worsening of the status quo is likely. An embarrassing outcome at Annapolis will lead to a cessation of the Bush administration's efforts at attempting the restart the peace process, resulting in 14 months of American non-involvement and leaving it up to the next president. A just resolution emerging from the next administration is unlikely as both leading contenders for the Republican and Democratic nominations are seen as strongly pro-Israel.¹³

A hands-off or supportive U.S. administration will give Israel the ability to continue with its settlement project and the building of the wall. The absence of international involvement will in effect leave Israel to impose its own de facto solution - the further colonization of the West Bank and the transferring and ghettoization of Palestinians into cordoned-off population centers, creating mini-Gaza Strips in the West Bank.

A failed conference may create some breathing room for Abbas to resolve internal Palestinian disagreements. With no pressure from the U.S., Abbas can enter into negotiations with Hamas to resolve the status of Gaza, something Hamas has indicated a keen interest in doing. This may lead to yet another national unity government, though given the likelihood it would face another international boycott, a more probable outcome would be the calling of early elections. Regardless, without intense international involvement and pressure on Israel to accept the international consensus, the Palestinians will increasingly find themselves in a more urgent and dire position.

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12. What have been the major developments in the West Bank and Gaza since July when Bush announced the conference?

Since July, Israel has continued to conduct daily raids in the West Bank and air strikes on the Gaza Strip. 151 Palestinians, three Israeli soldiers and one Israeli civilian have been killed.

In September, Israel expropriated 1,100 dunams (272 acres) of Palestinian land in the West Bank to facilitate the development of E-1, a five square mile area in the West Bank, east of Jerusalem.¹⁴ In E-1, Israel plans to build 3,500 houses, a hotel and an industrial park, completing the encirclement of Jerusalem with Jewish colonies, and cutting it off from the West Bank. Israel has already begun construction on a four-story police headquarters in E-1.¹⁵

Israel declared the Gaza Strip a "hostile entity" on September 19, opening the way for it to collectively punish the population by cutting off money transfers from the West Bank, and electricity, gas and water supplies from Israel. Already sealed off from the rest of the world by Israeli closure, Gazans are running desperately short of medicines, foodstuffs and virtually all other goods.

Israel released 86 prisoners in October and is planning to release more than 400 during the Annapolis conference. On November 25, the office of Palestinian Legislative Council member Mustafa Barghouthi released figures showing that since the announcement of the conference, Israel has detained 1,714 Palestinians.¹⁶ It also continues to hold more than 12,000 Palestinian prisoners.

Israel announced a route change and extension of the illegal separation wall being built in the West Bank. With the new path the wall will seize a total of 12 percent of the West Bank. Along with the settlements and settler-only roads, this means if were Israel to withdraw from the rest of the West Bank, it would still maintain full control over 46 percent of it.¹⁷

The expansion of Jewish colonies and the demolition of Palestinian homes continue.

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Footnotes:

¹ "President Bush Discusses the Middle East." Office of the Press Secretary. July 16, 2007.
² "Quartet Statement Following July 19 Meeting." U.S. Department of State. July 20, 2007.
³ "U.S. invites Israel, Palestinians to Annapolis." Reuters. November 20, 2007.
⁴ "President Bush Discusses the Middle East." Office of the Press Secretary. July 16, 2007.
⁵ "Nearly 50 Parties Invited to Mideast Peace Talks Tuesday in Annapolis." The Washington Post. November 21, 2007, and "Egypt to attend Annapolis summit." Al Jazeera. November 21, 2007.
⁶ "Hamas calls for boycott of November peace conference." IMEMC. October 9, 2007.
⁷ "Israeli, Palestinian teams meeting now to work on joint declaration, official says." The Associated Press. October 15, 2007, and "Bush: U.S. can't impose peace, but we can help." Haaretz. November 26, 2007.
⁸ "Palestinians say no talks without agenda." United Press International. October 24, 2007, and "Rice says confident Mideast meeting will go ahead." Reuters. October 24, 2007.
⁹ "Sarkozy tells Olmert: Palestinian refugees will not return to Israel." Haaretz. October 23, 2007.
¹⁰ "Olmert-Rice meeting: No American pressure." Ynet News. October 14, 2007.
¹¹ "PM tells Mazuz: Joint declaration to be presented for Knesset approval." Ynet News. October 22, 2007.
¹² "Aid Request Emphasizes U.S. Support of Palestinian Authority Leadership." The Washington Post. October 31, 2007.
¹³ "The Israel Factor: Ranking the presidential candidates." Haaretz.
¹⁴ "IDF orders the expropriation of Arab land near East Jerusalem." Haaretz. October 9, 2007.
¹⁵ "Israel to move police into West Bank headquarters near Jerusalem, despite U.S. concerns." The Associated Press. October 1, 2007.
¹⁶ "Barghouthi: Israel has detained four times the number of prisoners it plans to release." Maan News. November 26, 2007.
¹⁷ "A Barrier to Peace." The Palestine Center. October 1, 2007.