Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas government in Gaza, attends the inauguration of a new children's hospital in Gaza City. (Wissam Nassar, Maan Images)

Is Hamas' offer of a 10-year truce with Israel sincere? Is it a plausible gesture that should be carefully studied as a possible prelude to a comprehensive peace?

Hamas clearly is sending strong signals that it is prepared to play the diplomatic game - but not at any price, as Fatah and Yasser Arafat did for years. Hamas' offer of a long-term truce with Israel is neither permanent peace nor recognition of Israel. Those might follow from future negotiations, but only if Palestinians enjoy their equal national rights simultaneously, and this requires rules of the diplomatic game that are more even-handed.

Two pertinent issues are involved here. The first is whether Islamist movements like Hamas, Hizbullah and the Muslim Brotherhood can be trusted and taken at their word when they speak of accepting democratic pluralism or negotiating with Israel. Many in Israel, the West and parts of the Arab world view these groups as insincere opportunists and deceitful tricksters who will speak the language of democracy and peace while actually planning to grab power and turn the region into one large Islamic theocracy or Iranian puppet theater.

The second issue concerns the logistics and mechanics of peace-making, about exploring any opening that might lead to a negotiated settlement that replaces the past 60 years of nonstop war.

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On the first issue, we cannot conclusively prove if Hamas and other Islamists are sincere or deceitful. They remain exasperatingly imprecise on key issues like the use of military force, coexistence with Israel, relations with Iran, and how they would govern in power. Yet their past actions suggest their likely future policies - for they have negotiated and adhered to cease-fires, exchanged prisoners with Israel, entered into national unity governments with domestic rivals, and suggested that their domestic constituencies are their primary audience.

On the second matter of Hamas' truce offer, the best way to find out if they are sincere or bluffing is simply to call their bluff. This is the moment when responsible Israelis, Americans and Europeans should stop taking hysteria pills every morning, and instead enter into a calculated diplomatic process aiming for a win-win situation. Recent history offers a fascinating parallel: the cease-fire declared by the Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland in August 1994.

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