Israeli soldiers patrol the Old City of Hebron in the southern West Bank. (Mamoun Wazwaz, Maan Images)

Our current Palestinian situation can be characterized candidly, as one observer described it over 20 some years ago, as a "fragmented national mood"; where more than 80% perceive themselves to suffer from depression and worry; where the percentages of the poor are in constant upward increase and difficult to keep track of; where our poor are rapidly joining the inconsequential global pool of "surplus humanity"; where corruption is perceived as a sign of success and compared positively with Israeli society; where Palestinian society under occupation is sliding with an alarming increase towards the rule of the "security forces"; and where there is obvious, predetermined, and politically-sanctioned extension of military jurisdiction over civilians, and total disregard for civil judiciary. This is producing a clear visible tendency towards the emergence of a "police state", dependent for its establishment and continuity on external funds.

Palestinian society under occupation is almost entirely dependent for its survival on aid from outside, and not on its own productive resources and energies: nearly one million live on their PA monthly salaries, the dispensation of which is conditioned by receiving donations from outside on time; no less than 40-50 thousand live directly on their salaries from externally-funded NGOs, and some many more thousands live on NGO projects, etc. Thus, the livelihood of most Palestinians who have "steady" income is mortgaged by political decisions external to them, and beyond their control.

In spite of public statements and uttering to the contrary, nothing effectively is moving forward. All current official political initiatives have stopped dead in their tracks, or, euphemistically, "stumbled". The average citizen is being bombarded daily by contradictory statements that lead, if anything, to an ambiguous state of frustrated confusion. More specifically:

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The negotiations track with Israel: All indications are that it is revolving around its axis, without any signs of a clear outcome. The resulting public statements, whether Palestinian or Israeli, seem to point in the same direction, i.e, the realization of minimum Palestinian rights has not been agreed upon, nor the Israeli side is ready to do that.

Holding the long overdue 6th National Fateh Congress (the last Congress was held 21 years ago): in spite of the ongoing visible movement in this direction over the last few years, the reality is that it is bogged down by internecine Fateh internal conflicts and approaches, that are connected to the future role and identity of Fateh, and the problematic and competitive relationship between the PA and the PLO. Holding the much talked about "National Dialogue" between Fateh and Hamas: This is going nowhere not only because of the opposing approaches to the type of "solutions" to the Palestine question each side advocates, but because of internal opposing camps within each group, and their alignment with the externally involved parties, e.g. the US, Israel, the Arab countries, other regional forces, etc.

As a result, certain lines, or alignments, of potential confrontations, that were always present, now are being crystallized and articulated, and are rapidly surfacing. Some of these oppositionary lines of possible confrontations that are likely to surface more clearly during the coming year, are:

More open confrontation between the PA and the PLO: Since the decision adopted by the PLO Central Committee in its meeting on 12-13 October 1993 to establish a Palestinian National Authority subordinate to the PLO, the seeds of conflict were present. The current relationship has become inversed. Effectively, since Oslo the PLO has been increasingly marginalized, and its bodies anachronistic and ineffective. The PA is driving to annex the PLO to it (as one analyst described it).

More open confrontation between the Hamas government in Gaza and the Fateh-sanctioned government in Ramallah: The focus will hinge more specifically on the authority and legitimacy of the PLC and the presidency, especially over the term of the president and the role of the PLC and the probable call for new elections.

More open confrontation within Fateh, especially between the "young guard" and the "ancien regime" in the context of the obstructed convening of the 6th National Congress. Much clearer, and potentially oppositional, alignments between Palestinian capitalists vying to fill the political void, supported by "their technocrats and intellectuals", on the one hand, and the traditionally factional political groups (e.g. the Fateh recent attack on Fayyad, etc).

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