Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, waves as he is congratulated on Hamas' PLC Election victory. (Wesam Saleh, Maan News)

Background:

Hamas won a resounding victory in the Jan. 25 elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council. Hamas captured 76 of the 132 available seats: 30 were allocated based on approximately 43 percent support for its national list, and 46 percent allocated based on its victory on the district level.

Note: Hamas won 30 of 66 seats on the national list while Fateh won only 27; Hamas also won 46 of the 66 seats on the district level; Fateh won only 16.

Analysis:

1. Hamas' victory is the result of a number of factors - internal and external - and no one factor can explain the victory. Following are some of the conditions that influenced the election:

Internal Factors:

• Fateh, as a political party, failed to separate itself from the policies of the government as a whole, the Palestinian Authority (PA). Accordingly, allegations made against the PA were attributed to the ruling party, Fateh, rather than to the institutions of the PA.
  
  
• Many Palestinians were wary about the failure of the PA to address major domestic issues, in particular corruption. Both Israel and Hamas exaggerated allegations of corruption to serve their own purposes. Israel did so in order to undermine the PA and shift international focus away from its ongoing colonization and occupation, while simultaneously claiming that there was no Palestinian "partner for peace." Hamas promoted the allegations of corruption in order to garner more domestic support for its own party.
  
  For its part, both the PA and Fateh failed to publicly address the issue. Measures were taken privately to deal with corruption, including inviting Ernst & Young to audit its records (the PA Ministry of Finance was given a clean review) and investigating 40 individuals for corruption. Yet, the issue of corruption was largely unaddressed in public and none of the 40 individuals investigated were prosecuted, thereby leaving the impression that the PA and Fateh were unwilling to address the corruption allegations.
  
  
• Fateh had begun to disintegrate. President Mahmoud Abbas had failed to address concerns expressed by many within his own house, leading to a fragmented party, with many Fateh candidates opting to run as "independent" candidates on the district list. This split divided the Fateh vote. For example, in the Khan Younis district alone, 44 candidates ran for five seats. Of these candidates, five were "official" Fateh candidates, five were official Hamas candidates and approximately 26 members of Fateh ran as "independent" candidates, thereby splitting the vote. There were no "independent" candidates who were actually members of Hamas.
  

External:

• The rise and fall of support for Hamas is directly linked to the peace process and relations with Israel. Historically, when negotiations were taking place, Hamas' support did not exceed 11 percent. When Israel unilaterally decided to stop negotiating, support for Hamas rose sharply. The support skyrocketed after Israel began increasing its military attacks against the Palestinians; in particular following Israel's "targeted assassinations".
  
  
• The international community did little to bolster Fateh or other moderates by failing to ensure that Israel abided by international law and ended its military occupation and colonization of Occupied Palestinian Territory. One example is the international community's failure to implement the International Court of Justice ruling that Israel dismantle its wall, built on Palestinian land in the West Bank, because it was illegal. The legal case represented a non-violent response to Israel's occupation. When the international community failed to enforce the court's ruling and a myriad of other international decisions, the Palestinians became disillusioned.
  

2. Hamas' Ideological Stance Towards Israel Is Unclear/Palestinian Support for Hamas is Not Due to its Stance Towards Israel.

Palestinian support for Hamas has little to do with its ideological position regarding Israel just as Israeli support for Likud has little to do with Israel's failure to recognize the existence of a Palestinian state.

Hamas has no clear stance towards Israel. Many individual members of Hamas have indicated that they support negotiations with Israel. The late Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, the spiritual leader of Hamas, indicated in January 2004 that he was willing to recognize Israel if Israelis in return would recognize a Palestinian state. During its election campaign, Hamas specifically did not mention Israel and removed provisions from its platform calling for the replacement of Israel. Hamas believes that Palestinians have a right to resist Israel's military occupation - a right accorded under international law. During the election campaign, Hamas confined itself to focusing on Israel's military occupation of the 1967 territories and not Israel itself. Accordingly, Palestinian support for Hamas had little to do with an oft-stated claim that Hamas seeks the destruction of Israel.


3. Hamas and Negotiations with Israel.

Undoubtedly, Israel will use the Hamas victory as a means to justify its failure to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority. Nonetheless, the Israeli government unilaterally halted negotiations five years ago when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was elected. It even refused to negotiate with President Mahmoud Abbas after his democratic election. Israeli government statements will simply serve for it to continue its colonization of the West Bank and its continued control over the Occupied Palestinian Territories, without any international pressure.

Final Note

Negotiations with Israel on critical issues such as borders, refugees and water have always been conducted with the PLO and not the PA. Hamas is not a member of the PLO.

Diana Buttu is a Palestinian-Canadian lawyer living in Gaza.